EOF迭代法在月雨量预报中的数值试验及其改进

Numerical test and improvement in monthly rainfall forecast with EOF iterate method

应用单站月雨量资料对 EOF迭代预报法进行数值试验，并对其作了适当的改进。结果表明： EOF迭代法具有一定的预报能力，通过改进后，它有效地克服了过去初始值和截断阶数选取的人为性，可以更充分地利用前期要素的相关信息，使其统计意义更加清晰，预报结果更加客观。

Numerical test is made to EOF iterative forecast method with monthly rainfall data in single station that is properly improved.The result shows that the iterative method has some forecast capability that overcome personal interference in choosing initial value and interrupt steps, it can make full use of relative information of early stage factors for getting more statistic significance and more objective forecast results.