论江西气象预报预测体系改革与建设

Restructure And Construct Jiangxi Weather Predicting And Forecasting System

从改革思路、主攻方向和业务分工等方面,对江西气象预报预测体系改革与建设的主要内容进行了论述,认为预报预测体系是整个基本业务系统的核心,是实现预报预测准确率提高的关键,应按照中国气象局业务技术体制改革总体方案,结合江西经济社会发展的需要,开展天气、气候、气候变化、农业气象与生态、大气成分、人工影响天气、雷电等多轨道的预报预测业务,并紧紧依托气象基础业务系统,加强与有关部门和行业的合作,围绕提高气象预报预测准确率,以数值预报产品为基础,以信息处理技术为依托,综合利用多种监测资料和预报预测技术方法,以预报人机交互系统为工作平台,加强雷达、卫星等遥感应用产品对多轨道业务的支持,充分发挥预报员的作用,发展多轨道、无缝隙、精细化预报预测业务,连续滚动制作空间上完整、时间上连续的预报预测产品。

Discuss how to restructure and construct Jiangxi weather predicting and forecasting system on train of thought, main direction and operation division. And suggest that predicting and forecasting system is the core of the whole operation system and the key to improve accuracy of predicting and forecasting. So we should combine China Meteorological Administration's overall plan of restructuring meteorological operation technology system with the need of Jiangxi economic and social development to expand multi-track predicting and forecasting operation in weather, climate, climate change, agricultural meteorology and zoology, atmospheric element, weather modification and thunderbolt, closely rely on basic meteorological operation system to intensify the cooperation with relate department and vocation, and should make comprehensive utilization of several observation information and forecasting technology and method surrounding improving accuracy of predicting and forecasting, based on numerical forecasting information and relying on information processing technology, take human-computer interaction forecasting system as working platform, strengthen the support of remote sensing information such as radar, satellites for multi-track operation to expand multi-track, non-gap and fine forecasting operation, make roll forecasting continuously with spatial and temporal comprehensiveness.