我国外汇储备规模的确定与不确定性

The Certainty and Uncertainty of Our Foreign Exchange Reserves' Scale

进入21世纪,我国的外汇储备迅猛增长,于是储备规模到底多少比较合理,再次成为了大家关注的焦点。一国外汇储备规模的确定理论上是通过对传统因素的分析来确定的,然而由于制度的不完美和金融市场的不健全,外汇储备还受到很多不确定因素的影响。为减少储备规模不确定性,必须进行必要的制度建设和政策调整。

Entering the21st century,China's foreign exchange reserves have been increasing rapidly in amount.The foreign exchange reserves' scale becomes again the focus which concerned the government and the academic circles.We are trying to measure the basic scale of a country's foreign exchange by analyzing the traditional factors.Then we expand the judgment through the research on the uncertain factors.Finally we make some suggestions to improve the government policy so that we could reduce uncertainty of the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves.