应用加速失效时间模型研究方形黄鼠蚤松江亚种的生存危险率

Accelerated Failure Time Models Applied in Researching Survival Hazard Rate of the Flea Citellophilus Tesquorum Sungaris

利用生存分析的方法 ,建立了方形黄鼠蚤松江亚种在未吸血的雌蚤和雄蚤 ,吸一次血的雌蚤和雄蚤 ,喂血雄蚤和喂血雌蚤 4种水平下的加速失效时间模型 (Acceleratedfailuretimemodels) ,并给出了相应模型的危险率函数表达式 ,得到了如下结论 :⑴危险率随着温度的增大而增大 ,随着湿度的增大而减小 ,且温度比湿度对蚤的生存影响大 ⑵在相同的温度湿度下 ,生存到某天的危险率随着吸血条件的改善而降低 ⑶高温低湿尤其不利于吸一次血的雌蚤和雄蚤 ,低温高湿不利于喂血雄蚤 ⑷一般有 ,未吸血蚤的生存期限是 1～

In this paper, we construct the accelerated failure time models of citellophilus tesquorum sungaris in four levels: no blood-sucking female flea and male flea, only once blood-sucking female flea and male flea, blood-feeding male flea, blood-feeding female flea. The main conclusions are:(1) the survival hazard rate of flea increases with the temperature increasing, but decreases with the relative humidity;(2) on the condition of the same temperature and humidity, the survival hazard rate of flea in a certain day decreases with the nutrition improving; (3) both high temperature and low humidity do great harm to the only once blood-sucking flea, but low temperature and high humidity do to blood-feeding male flea; (4) generally, hunger flea can survive 1～16 days.