不确定竞争市场的R&D投资决策分析

R&D INVESTMENT DECISION UNDER UNCERTAINTY AND IMPERFECT COMPETITION

本文针对不确定的竞争市场 ,分析降低成本的不可逆 R& D投资决策 .考虑到 R& D结果不确定 ,而这种不确定与投资量有关 ,在利用博弈论方法分析和给出了投资结果不确定的投资期权价值后 ,设随机市场需求规模服从均匀分布 ,本文分析了各种因素对 R& D投资的影响 ,发现较大的市场需求预期和较强的成本节约效果鼓励了 R& D投资 ;相反地 ,较大的成功 R& D所需的最大投资量挫败了 R& D投资 ;

This paper considers an uncertain and competitive market,where the incumbent corporate conducts cost reduction research&development(R&D).The paper takes account of the fact that the result of R&D is uncertain and this uncertainty is related with the investment amount.The value of investment opportunity with uncertain R&D result is derived by means of game theory.With the assumption that the stochastic market demand scale follows a uniform distribution,the impacts of several factors on R&D investment decisions are analyzed.We find that large expectation of market demand scale and strong cost reduction effect encourage the investment;on the contrary,large maximal investment amount of successful R&D discourages the investment;however,the tradeoff between the possibility of successful R&D and the investment cost leads to the existence of ex ante the optimal investment amount to maximize the investment option value.