动态投入产出模型的反向求解及灵敏度分析

A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR INVERSE SOLUTIONS TO THE DYNAMIC INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

在经济理论研究和实践中 ,动态投入产出模型是一类有广泛应用前景的模型 .本文讨论了动态投入产出模型的反向递推解法及灵敏度分析 ,给出了目标年的总产出向量和各期的最终净需求向量发生变动时 ,对计划期内国民经济各部门总产出产生影响的计算公式 ,揭示了动态投入产出系统初始条件和外生变量对国民经济各部门总产出的传递效应 .计算实例的结果表明 ,所给的公式是正确的、可行的 .

The Dynamic Input Output MOdel is well known in economic theory and practice.In this paper,considering object year’s conditions,a sensitivity analysis for inverse solutions to the Dynamic Input Output Model is performed.The formulations which compute the changes of national economy sectors’total output during the planning periods when object year’s total output vector and each year’s final demand vector vary are giyen.Transfer effects of national economy sectors’total output due to the changes of the initial conditions and the exogenous varjables are revealed.The forecasting results indicate that the adoptive formula are effectual.