中国金融泡沫化研究:理论与实证分析

A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on China's Financial Bubbling

金融自身的泡沫化问题作为引发金融危机的一个重要方面 ,正成为金融体系乃至整个经济体系健康发展的重大威胁。这篇论文以中国金融泡沫化问题为研究对象 ,在剖析金融泡沫化成因的基础上重点对我国金融体系的泡沫化水平进行了实证分析。在分析过程中 ,文章分别从我国银行体系、股票市场和外汇市场选取了 12项经济指标 ,通过采用编制泡沫化指数的方法对 1992～ 2 0 0 1年十年间我国金融泡沫化水平的相对变动进行了量化分析。最后 。

As one of the important causes of financial crisis, the bubbling of finance itself has been a great threat to the normal development of financial system and even the whole economic system. Taking financial bubbling in China as the subject, this paper lays the stress on an empirical analysis of the bubbling level of China's financial system based on its causation analysis. In the empirical analysis the paper selects 12 economic indicators from banking system, stock market and foreign exchange market and carries on the numerical analysis on the relative change of bubbling level of financial system in China from 1992 to 2001 by calculating the level of financial bubbling effectively.