局地暴雨(冰雹)过程预报的研究

The Study for Predicting the Local Torrential Rain and Hail

通过对博州40a4～9月份近200个局地暴雨和冰雹天气个例进行了综合分析研究,依据局地暴雨和冰雹天气过程发生、发展过程中大气能量的积累、转换和爆发的规律。建立了一套紧扣能量转换“力—功—能”原理的“天文动力结构分析—天气学高、温、压、湿变量场分析—静力能量场定量指标客观分析”强对流预报方法和技术流程。通过近两年的业务试用,博州局地暴雨的预报水平明显提高。

On the basis of nearly 200 torrential rain and hail case from April to September during 40 years over Bole region,the synthetic analysis was made according as the law of atmosphere energy accumulation,transformation and outbreak during their development.A suit of methods of prediction and its technique operation for the strong convection weather were set up by force-work-energy transformation principle according to the analysis of astronomy dynamical structure,the variation of height,temperature,pressure and humidity field,and the objective analysis of the quantitative index for the static force energy field.The ability to predict local heavy rain was obviously improved during the period of operational test.