阿勒泰地区冬季降水异常的概念模型及预测模型

The Concept and Predict Model of Abnormality Precipitation in Winter of Aletai Region

在普查及分析各因子物理意义的基础上,建立了阿勒泰冬季降水异常的概念模型及预测模型。结果表明:冬季500hPa高度场上欧亚中高纬地区乌拉尔山至西亚为槽,欧洲、贝加尔湖为脊,位于青藏高原以北的中纬度西风偏强,位于青藏高原以南的副热带西风以及中高纬度西风偏弱,西太副高西伸北挺明显,里海槽弱以及LaNina事件的当年或结束年、ElNino事件的开始年或当年时,阿勒泰冬季降水易偏多,反之易偏少。

The concept and predict models of abnormality precipitation in winter of Aletai region were established based on forecasting each physics meaning of factor.Results showed that the conditions of more precipitation in winter of Aletai involved:In the Europe and Asia mid-high latitude region was a trough between the Ural mountain and the West Asia in 500hPa,a ridge between Europe and Baikal Lake,the mid latitude west wind was stronger in the north of Qinghai-Tibet Platean than the subtropical zone and the mid-high latitude in the south of Qinghai-Tibet Platean,the subtropical high of the west Pacific Ocean was obviously expanded to the west and the north,the trough of Caspian Sea was weak,La Nina event ended in this year,and there was El Nino in that year.Whereas easy to be less.