长江上游暴雨泥石流与环境研究

Research of Rainfall-Debris Flow and Environment in Upper Reaches of Yangzi River

长江上游是我国暴雨泥石流分布最广 ,暴发最频繁 ,危害最严重的地区。泥石流对城镇、交通、河道、农业 ,以及水利水电危害很大。根据不同的泥石流活动程度 ,分为泥石流强活动区、中度活动区和弱活动区 ,并按其形成环境条件 ,分为两大主要因素和 12个因子 ,通过近千条泥石流沟数据的相关分析和权重统计 ,进行了定量和半定量研究 ,提出了泥石流形成环境的定量计算式 (环境综合值 )。通过泥石流形成环境综合值的计算 ,结合激发雨量的大小 ,又细划为雨洪、暴雨、大暴雨和特大暴雨泥石流沟 ,对泥石流的预报提供了可靠的基本参数。经验算证明 ,利用环境综合值进行泥石流预测预报是可行的。

The upper reaches of Yangzi River is the area of rainfall-debris flow that is the most widely distribution and takes place frequently and has the severe hazard in China. The debris flow endangers the towns, traffic, river channel, and agriculture and hydropower station. According to the extent of debris flow activity, it is divided into strong, middle and low activity area. Based on the factor of formation environment, it has 2 main factors and 12 sub-factors. Near 1000 debris flow gullies were analyzed.Through the calculation of comprehensive environment value and combination with the intensity of rainfall the reliable basic factor of debris flow forecast is provided. Justified by the recomputed, it is feasible that the prediction and forecast of the debris flow by the comprehensive environment value.