基础利率的调整与常规经济增长的相关性

Relationship between Adjustment of Basic Interest Rate and Regular Economic Increase

在我国目前供大于求的宏观经济环境下,需求决定产出,产出的微小波动可能会引起投资的较大变化,投资与利率负相关;在跨时替代弹性σ<1,利率变动影响个人消费的收入效应大于替代效应的前提下,储蓄和利率存在负向关系。在央行采用公开市场操作收回流动性、提高存款准备金率等货币数量调控手段仍不能解决投资过热、消费需求不足的问题时,可以考虑适时适度加息,采用货币价格调控手段,以防止供求缺口的进一步扩大、宏观经济的大起大落。

In the macro-economic environment of China that supply exceeds demand, demand determines production, a tiny fluctuation of which might lead to a big change of investment and investment has a negative relationship with the interest rate; when σ<1, the income effect that change of the interest rate affects personal consumption exceeds supplementary effect, deposit has a negative relationship with the interest rate. When the overheated investment and insufficient demand of consumption can't be resolved even if the Central Bank takes some measures to regulate the quantity of currency by opening the market, calling in the floating and increasing reserve fund rate of deposit, we should recommend moderate rate increase at appropriate time and take measures to regulate price of currency so as to prevent a further broadening of the gap between demand and supply and a big fluctuation of macro-economy.