摘要
The projections of climate change in the globe and East Asia by the NCC/IAPT63 model with the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios have been investigated in this paper. The resultspointed out a global warming of 3.6℃/100 yr and 2.5℃/100 yr for A2 and A1B during the 21stcentury, respectively. The warming in high and middle latitudes will be more obvious than that inlow latitudes, especially in the winter hemisphere. The warming of 5.1℃/100 yr for A2 and 3.6℃/100 yr for A1B over East Asia in the 21st century will be much higher than that in the globe. Theglobal mean precipitation will increase by about 4.3%/100 yr for A2 and 3.4%/100 yr for A1B in the21st century, respectively. The precipitation will increase in most parts of the low and highlatitudes and decrease in some regions of the subtropical latitudes. The linear trends of the annualmean precipitation anomalies over East Asia will be 9.8%/100 yr for A2 and 5.2%/100 yr for A1B,respectively. The drier situations will occur over the northwestern and southeastern parts of EastAsia. The changes of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in the globe for the 21st centuryby the NCC/IAP T63 model with SRES A2 and A1B scenarios are in agreement with a number of the modelprojections.
The projections of climate change in the globe and East Asia by the NCC/IAPT63 model with the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios have been investigated in this paper. The resultspointed out a global warming of 3.6℃/100 yr and 2.5℃/100 yr for A2 and A1B during the 21stcentury, respectively. The warming in high and middle latitudes will be more obvious than that inlow latitudes, especially in the winter hemisphere. The warming of 5.1℃/100 yr for A2 and 3.6℃/100 yr for A1B over East Asia in the 21st century will be much higher than that in the globe. Theglobal mean precipitation will increase by about 4.3%/100 yr for A2 and 3.4%/100 yr for A1B in the21st century, respectively. The precipitation will increase in most parts of the low and highlatitudes and decrease in some regions of the subtropical latitudes. The linear trends of the annualmean precipitation anomalies over East Asia will be 9.8%/100 yr for A2 and 5.2%/100 yr for A1B,respectively. The drier situations will occur over the northwestern and southeastern parts of EastAsia. The changes of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in the globe for the 21st centuryby the NCC/IAP T63 model with SRES A2 and A1B scenarios are in agreement with a number of the modelprojections.
基金
This research is supported by the IPCC-China Special Climate Projects and the Laboratory for Climate Studies of ChinaMeteorological Administration.
