摘要
In this paper, by using a simple climate model (SCM), a numerical simulationstudy has been conducted on the scientific and methodological aspects of Brazilian Proposal. Firstthe initial check of simple climate model has been done, then we do some sensitivity studies ontimeframes (attribution start and end dates, and evaluation date), and three attribution methods(marginal attribution method, proportional attribution method, and time-sliced attribution method),at last we get the main conclusions as follows: The simple climate model can represent the resultsof more complex climate model (e.g., HadCM3), and it is thus used to study the scientific andmethodological aspects of the Brazilian Proposal. Because of the limited knowledge of science anddata, although attributing a part of temperature increase to different GHG (greenhouse gas) emissionsource, there is considerable temperature increase unattributed to regional emissions. Therefore itis uncertain to make Brazilian Proposal as the method for the responsibility share of future GHGdecrease emission. The choices of different timeframes (attribution start and end dates, andevaluation date) and future emission SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) make greatinfluence on the regional contributions to global climate changes, but different attribution methodshave only a little influence.
In this paper, by using a simple climate model (SCM), a numerical simulationstudy has been conducted on the scientific and methodological aspects of Brazilian Proposal. Firstthe initial check of simple climate model has been done, then we do some sensitivity studies ontimeframes (attribution start and end dates, and evaluation date), and three attribution methods(marginal attribution method, proportional attribution method, and time-sliced attribution method),at last we get the main conclusions as follows: The simple climate model can represent the resultsof more complex climate model (e.g., HadCM3), and it is thus used to study the scientific andmethodological aspects of the Brazilian Proposal. Because of the limited knowledge of science anddata, although attributing a part of temperature increase to different GHG (greenhouse gas) emissionsource, there is considerable temperature increase unattributed to regional emissions. Therefore itis uncertain to make Brazilian Proposal as the method for the responsibility share of future GHGdecrease emission. The choices of different timeframes (attribution start and end dates, andevaluation date) and future emission SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) make greatinfluence on the regional contributions to global climate changes, but different attribution methodshave only a little influence.
基金
The work is supported by Climate Change Special Funds of China Meteorological Administration (CCSF2005-2-QH11).
