基于引力模型的国际双边贸易流量影响因素分析

贸易引力模型是基于牛顿万有引力定律,用于研究两国或地区之间的双边贸易的经济模型。通过选取世界上13个主要国家2007年的截面数据,建立了国际双边贸易流量引力模型。结果表明,贸易伙伴国的经济规模(GDP)、地理距离和制度安排是影响国际双边贸易的主要因素。最后提出应加强物流建设与合作,加强区域经济合作,以促进国际双边贸易向前健康发展。

By collecting cross-sectional data in 2006 of 13 major trading countries in the world,this paper sets up bilateral world trade gravity model so as to conduct analysis on major influential factors of bilateral world trade flows.According to the analysis,the major influential factors are as follows: economic size(GDP)of trading partners,geographic distance and institution arrangement.Finally,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions based on the analysis mentioned above.