基于混合分布非一致性年径流序列频率参数的计算

Calculation of hydrological frequency parameters of inconsistent annual runoff series based on mixed distribution

【目的】在2个分布组成的混合分布假设下,研究非一致性年径流序列的频率参数计算问题,为陕北及关中地区的水资源利用与管理提供依据。【方法】假设非一致性年径流序列变异点前后的序列分别服从2个对数正态分布或2个P-Ⅲ分布,全序列服从由这2个分布组成的混合分布,采用水文变异点综合诊断方法,确定非一致性年径流序列的变异点,最后采用模拟退火算法对混合分布序列进行频率参数估计。【结果】将基于混合分布非一致性年径流序列频率计算的方法应用于陕北及关中地区的实测平均流量序列,理论频率与经验分布拟合较好。【结论】混合分布模型是进行非一致性年径流序列频率计算的一种有效途径。

【Objective】This paper explored the way of frequency calculation of inconsistent annual runoff series from mixed distribution(such as mixed-two lognormal distribution and mixed-two P-Ⅲdistribution),in order to provide the basis for water resources utilization and management in Shaanbei and Guanzhong regions.【Method】Based on the assumption that the inconsistent annual runoff series are composed by a mixed-two lognormal distribution and mixed-two P-Ⅲ,comprehensive change-point analysis method was adopted to de...