利用净现值在有风险和通货膨胀条件下的长期投资决策分析

Analysis on Long Term Investment Policy by NPV Under the Circumstances of Risks and/or Inflation

在利用净现值进行投资决策分析时要考虑货币的时间价值 ,而货币的时间价值是在没有通货膨胀和风险条件下的社会平均资金利润率。实际中 ,项目的现金流量可能是名义现金流量 ,可能是实际现金流量 ;可能是肯定的现金流量 ,也可能是非肯定的现金流量。在进行投资决策分析时折现率与现金流量的指标口径应该一致 ,文章从仅有通货膨胀而无风险、仅有风险而无通货膨胀。

In the analysis of investment policy by NPV, one important factor is the time value of currency, which is the average social fund profit margin without considering inflation and risks; in analysis of investment policy, it is possible that the cash flow of project will be nominal cash flow or effective cash flow; it is also possible that the cash flow of project will be positive cash flow or non-positive cash flow; in the analysis of investment policy, the index of the rate of discount and cash flow should be on the same line. This paper approaches the issue from three aspects, namely, under the circumstance of inflation without risks, under the circumstance of only risks without inflation, and under the circumstance of both risks and inflation. In the three cases, it approaches how to adjust cash flow or how to adjust rate of discount in order to get a correct investment policy.