摘要
利用气候模式诊断与比较计划(PCMDI)提供的9个新一代气候系统模式的模拟结果,通过多模式集合方法预估分析了3种排放情景(高排放A2、中等排放A1B和低排放B1)下21世纪三峡库区3种极端气温指数的可能变化。结果表明:21世纪三峡库区气温年较差呈震荡的趋势,主要将以增大为主。暖夜指数和热浪指数都将显著增加。整个21世纪,库区气温年较差将增加0.4～0.8℃,暖夜指数将增加13.3%～17.4%,热浪指数将增加8.5～13.3 d。分阶段来看,21世纪前期,气温年较差将增加0.2～0.6℃;暖夜指数将增加5.1%～7.3%,热浪指数将增加3.1～4.1 d;21世纪中期,气温年较差将增加0.4～1.0℃,暖夜指数将增加13.6%～18.9%,热浪指数将增加7.7～12.1 d;21世纪后期,气温年较差将增加0.6～1.4℃,暖夜指数将增加19.1%～28.9%,热浪指数将增加14.3～23.7 d。
The projections of extreme temperature indices(ETR、TN90 and HWDI)in the Three Gorges for the 21st century by using the global climate system models provided by PCMDI with the SRES A2,A1B and B1 that joined the IPCC fourth scientific assessment report were analyzed in this paper.The results showed that compared to the current climate(1980～1999),ETR will possibly increase in the most of period in the 21st century,TN90 and HWDI will sharply increase.During the 21th century(2011～2100),ETR will be increased by 0...
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期590-596,共7页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项"全球变暖背景下三峡库区极端天气气候事件趋势预估研究"
关键词
极端气温
预估
三峡库区
extreme temperature
projection
the Three Gorges Reservoir Area
