宏观经济变量对我国居民消费函数影响的实证研究

The Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables on Impact of Chinese Household Consumption

文章首先利用1990～2007年基本数据,采用主成分方法分析变量间的相关性并予以消除,得出联立方程中我国居民消费函数的回归模型。然后,就回归结果进行了模拟评价,分析了影响居民消费的主要因素,强调只有国民经济和社会全面发展,我国居民的消费能力才会不断提高,建议政府注重人口年龄结构变动和社会保障体系对居民消费能力的影响,在保持积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策连续性的同时,要关注经济形势的发展,不断完善这一政策。

Firstly,the paper use the basic data from 1990 to 2007 and principal component method which analyse and eliminate the correlation among variables,receive the regression model of household consumption function in simultaneous equations.Then,the paper simulate and evaluate the regression results and analyse the major factors which affect consumer expenditure,and give some policy recommendations in the end.