消费冲击与中国经济波动

Consumption Shock and Chinese Economic Fluctuation

笔者认为:以持久收入消费理论为基础的标准真实经济周期模型,无法解释中国1978年以来消费波动非平滑这一关键特征事实,1978年以来中国经济运行中需求变动影响巨大。笔者重点考察了消费冲击对中国经济波动的影响。研究表明:在技术冲击存在的前提下引入消费冲击可以模拟实际情况。从模拟结果看,中国1978年的经济波动确实是需求冲击(消费偏好改变、政府调控等)和供给冲击(技术不断进步)共同作用的结果。

The author holds that the standard RBC Model based on permanent income hypothesis cannot explain the non-smoothing feature of Chinese consumption fluctuations since 1978 and the effect of the change in demand is tremendous in Chinese economic operation since 1978.The paper focuses on the effect of consumption shock on the economy of China.The research finds that the introduction of consumption shock can simulate the real situation on the precondition of the existence of technological shock.The simulation re...