国际油价波动对我国经济影响的CGE分析

A CGE ANALYSIS ON THE IMPACT OF FLUCTUATION IN THE INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICE ON CHINA'S ECONOMIC

石油价格变动会引起一个经济体全方位的反应.本文利用一个中国CGE模型—MCHUGE模型,研究油价上涨20%对我国经济发展的影响.研究结果表明,石油生产、加工、冶炼以及部分化工等跟原油关系最直接的产业将从石油涨价中获益;以石油为原料的行业由于成本不容易转嫁,大部分会受到石油涨价的影响;其他替代能源产业因需求大幅上升而涨价;汽车和机械制造业将受到一定的冲击.在此基础上,我们提出了一些政策建议.

This article used the CGE model-MCHUGE model to analyze oil price volatility on China s economic development.The analysis shows that the enterprises in oil production,processing,refining and some chemical factories will benefit from the oil price increase,the prices of the alternative energy will increase due to the demand increase caused by the oil price increase,and the automobile and machinery manufacturing enterprises will suffer some impacts.And some suggestions were put forward to solve these problems...