摘要
目的探讨趋势季节模型预测出境劳务人员HBsAg阳性率的实用意义和可行性。方法运用移动平均趋势剔除法配合最小二乘法建立线性模型,对2004～2008年上半年10 960名出境劳务监测体检人员及其HBsAg阳性检出人次所形成的时间序列进行分析,并做了回顾性和前瞻性两方面验证。结果模型拟合较好,大多数观察值落在95%的预测范围内((?)±2.11Se)。用该模型求各季HBsAg阳性检出率的理论值,与各季实际检出率相比,率预测误差Se=1.7。且发现劳务监测对象及其HBsAg阳性人数有季节性周期变化,呈上升趋势;第19、20季实际与预测的HBsAg阳性率比较,无显统计学意义(P>0.05),预测值可信度高。结论趋势季节模型预测,根据季节体检人数变化趋势,正确调整工作重点,预先安排好出入境人员体检,不断提高传染病监测质量。
Obiective To forecast the practical significance and feasibility of HBsAg positive rate among abroad labours by trend-season model(TSM).Methods Establish linear model by combining thhe method of moving average trend removed and the method of least squares method,analyzed time-sequence based on 10 960 abroad labors and HBsAg positive cases among them during 2004 to the first half of 2008, and made both retrospective and prospective verification.Results The model was nice,most of values observed were within 9...
