1961～2004年漠河年均温与持续极端气温频数的变化分析

Variations of Annual Mean Temperature and Durative Extreme Temperature Frequency at Mohe During 1961-2004

利用漠河站点1961～2004年逐日平均、最高和最低气温资料计算得到的年均温、年变化和季节变化的持续暖日和冷夜频数,分析了它们的线性趋势、增量、显著性和平稳性。其中年均温升高了约1.61℃,年持续暖日频数增加了约4次,冬季持续暖日频数和夏季持续冷夜频数都呈显著增加趋势。分别对年均温和年持续频数的线性回归关系,以及年均温和季持续频数的线性回归关系进行了显著性检验。在线性回归关系显著的情况下,分别就各频数序列对年均温的影响逐一进行显著性检验,从而揭示了年均温与各频数序列的变化关系。研究结果表明:从按年变化的角度来分析,年均温的升高是由年持续暖日频数的增加和年持续冷夜频数的减少共同显著影响的;从按季变化的角度来分析,年均温的升高主要由春、夏季持续暖日频数的增加和春、秋季持续冷夜频数的减少共同显著影响的。

Annual mean temperature,frequency of annual durative warm days and cold nights,and frequency of seasonal durative warm days and cold nights were calculated based on the daily mean,maximum and minimum temperature at Mohe during 1961-2004. Linear trends,increments,significance tests and stationarity test were analyzed. Annual mean temperature increased by 1.61 ℃ and the frequency of annual durative warm days rose by four times. There were significant increasing trends in both frequency of winter durative warm...