武汉市居民中暑与气象因子的统计特点研究

Statistical Properties of the Heat Stroke Events in Wuhan Residents and Meteorological Factors

利用武汉市1994～2006年共13年1464个中暑病例资料和同期逐日气象资料,分别统计逐日中暑人数、日平均中暑人数与气象因子的线性、非线性相关系数,筛选出关键气象因子,建立中暑与多气象因子的非线性模型,制订中暑气象等级标准。结果表明:气温是中暑发生的最关键影响因子,不利气象因子3天或3天以上的累积效应才能导致中暑群发,中暑人数与气象因子呈现非线性关系。建立了日平均中暑人数与前3日平均气温、前3日平均最小相对湿度的指数模型。将日平均中暑人数划分为5级,并应用该等级标准进行历史样本回代检验和独立样本预报检验,效果较好。

By using the detailed data of 1464 daily heat stroke cases and daily meteorological factors from 1994 to 2006 in Wuhan ,the linear and nonlinear correlation coefficients between the daily number of heat stroke cases and meteorological factors are calculated,the key factors are selected,the nonlinear models are established,and the meteorological grades for heat stroke are divided. The results show: 1) The air temperature is the key factor which leads to the heat stroke events,and the accumulation of meteorol...