政府民生支出对居民消费需求的动态影响——基于状态空间模型的实证检验

The Dynamic Effect of Government Expenditure on Livelihood Improvement on Resident Consumption Demand:Empirical Test Based on State Space Model

文章在最优消费行为理论分析框架下,基于我国城乡二元经济社会中居民所特有的消费特点,将政府民生支出引入最优消费函数进行理论分析并利用1978-2008年的相关数据,对政府民生支出与我国居民消费需求的动态关系进行实证检验。结果表明:(1)改革开放后,政府民生支出对居民消费产生倒V字形影响;(2)政府民生支出对城镇居民消费的影响大于其对农村居民消费的影响;(3)投资性民生支出对居民消费的影响远大于转移性民生支出对居民消费的影响。

Based on the optimum consumption behavior theory and the unique consumption characteristics of Chinese residents under the dual economical and social structure in urban and rural areas,the paper introduces government expenditure on livelihood improvement to the optimum consumption function,and makes an empirical test on the dynamic relation between government expenditure on livelihood improvement and resident consumption demand by using the data from 1978 to 2008.The results are as follows: first,since the ...