财政支出结构变动对私人消费影响的动态分析——生命周期视角下政府支出结构需要调整的经验证据

A Dynamic Analysis on the Effect of Government Spending Structure on Private Consumption:Necessary Adjustment of Government Spendingin Life-cycle Perspective

人们对政府财政支出无论是从总量还是从结构上的合理性一直都存在着争议,文章通过考察政府财政支出结构与私人消费的关系,建立代表性消费者的跨期迭代理论模型,同时利用相关宏观经济数据,研究我国政府财政支出结构对私人消费的影响。实证结果表明:政府的行政管理费用支出对私人消费有挤出作用,政府的社会文教费用支出、经济建设支出以及其他补贴性的财政支出对私人消费有拉动作用。另外,基础经济建设支出的动态变化显示,短期内能促进GDP、私人消费以及就业率的提高,但随着时间的推移会出现一定的抑制作用。研究结论为促进私人消费、合理调整政府财政支出结构提供了新的证据。

There is room for doubts about the rationality of government spending from the angles of aggregate amount and structure.The paper establishes a recursive model of representative agent to study the effect of government spending structure on private consumption.The empirical results show that government spending on administrative expenses has crowding-out effects on private consumption;government spending on social culture and education,economic construction,and other subsidies has pulling effects on private ...