上海市经济增长与工业污染关系研究——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线假说

Study on the Relation between Economic Growth and Industrial Pollution in Shanghai:Based on the Hypothesis of Environmental Kuznets Curve

本文首先在环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假说的基础上,对上海市1981-2007年的经济增长与工业污染指标之间的关系进行了研究,发现在样本期间上海经济增长与工业污染的关系并不唯一;接着又采用因素分解法对工业污染物排放量进行了分析,结果表明在排放量增长阶段,经济总量的增加起到了主导作用,而在排放量下降阶段,技术进步起到了主导作用,产业结构调整对排放量降低的贡献相对较小。文章最后对上海市经济与环境的协调发展提出了一些政策建议。

Based on the hypothesis of EKC,the paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth and industrial pollution in Shanghai from 1981 to 2007 and finds that the relationship between economic growth and industrial pollution in Shanghai is not static.Then it applies decomposition method to analyze industrial pollutant emissions.The results show that the increase in the whole economic value has been in a dominant position at the increasing stage of pollutant emissions,and technological progress has been in...