中国防洪若干重大问题的思考

Strategic thinking on major issues in China flood control

为配合中国水利部组织编制全国主要江河防洪规划工作,对与编制防洪规划有关的若干重大问题进行了研究。提出用20世纪发生过的大洪水淹没范围作为界定防洪区的基础;风险管理最重要的是规避风险和应对风险,而规避风险的核心是约束人类不合理的经济社会活动,降低洪水灾害造成的风险;当防洪区受到两种洪水风险威胁时,应当采用二维概率分布核查防洪区的标准;合理提高城市防洪标准,是城市防洪的首要任务;要协调城市防洪与城市建设的关系,充分发挥城市拦蓄雨洪的作用(如保留必要的水面率、雨水利用等),蓄排兼顾,而不宜过分强调城市排水;建议根据淹没水深、淹没历时和洪水频率组成的洪水风险度因子划分蓄滞洪区风险区,并结合蓄滞洪区自然地理条件比选安全建设模式。

Research efforts were made to study several major issues in formulating the flood prevention plan of China s seven large river basins. The planning activity was organized by the Ministry of Water Resources. Our research recommendations were adopted during the course of the plan formulation. For example,we propose using the severe floods submerge areas of the 20th century as benchmarks for the identification of future flood prevention areas. Our viewpoint is that the most important consideration in the flood...