关键海区海温异常的变化与中国区域降水和气温的关系(英文)

The Relationships between Variations of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Key Ocean Areas and the Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in China

利用 １９５１年到 １９９８年的月平均海温资料及同时期中国 １６０个测站的降水和气温的月平均资料，选用海温异常的变化趋势一变温，讨论了关键海区海温异常的变化与我国降水和气温的关系，旨在探讨变温因子与我国降水和气温的关系与海温距平与降水和气温的关系有什么不同，用变温因子能否降低降水预报的不确定性。结果表明：降水异常对海温异常两种变化趋势的响应不完全相同，说明分别讨论同一种海温异常态的两种变化趋势对降水的影响比单独讨论海温距平对降水的影响更有效一些，有助于降低预报的不确定性；除西太平洋海区外，气温异常对各海区海温异常两种变化趋势的响应较一致。降水异常对变温的响应与对海温异常的响应，有一致之处，也有不同之处。

The relationships between variations of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTVA) in the key ocean areas and the precipitation / temperature anomalies in China are studied based on the monthly mean sea surface temperature data from January 1951 to December 1998 and the same stage monthly mean precipitation/ temperature data of 160 stations in China. The purpose of the present study is to discuss whether the relationship between SSTVA and precipitation / temperature is different from that between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and precipitation/ temperature, and whether the uncertainty of prediction can be reduced by use of SSTVA. The results show that the responses of precipitation anomalies to the two kinds of tendency of SSTA are different. This implies that discussing the effects of two kinds of tendency of SSTA on precipitation anomalies is better than just discussing the effects of SSTA on precipitation anomalies. It helps to reduce the uncertainty of prediction. The temperature anomalies have more identical re-sponses to the two kinds of tendency of SSTA than the precipitation except in the western Pacific Ocean. The response of precipitation anomalies to SSTVA is different from that to SSTA, but there are some similarities. Key words Variations of sea surface temperature anomalies - Precipitation anomalies - Temperature anomalies - Statistical significance test Sponsored jointly by the “ National Key Developing Program for Basic Sciences” (G1998040900) Part I and the Key Program of National Nature Science Foundation of China “ Analyses and Mechanism Study of the Regional Climatic Change in China” under Grant No.49735170.