摘要
Correlation census shows that the correlation between the tree-ring chronologies in the Urumqi River Basin and precipitation during July in the last year to February in the concurrent year is significant,and the best single correlation coefficient is 0.74,with significance level of 0.0001. Using two residual chronologies collected from west Baiyanggou and Boerqingou,precipitation for 348 years can be reconstructed in the North Slope of middle Tianshan Mountains,its explained variance is 62%.According to much verification from independent precipitation data,historical climate records,glacier and other data.it shows that the reconstructed precipitation series of 348 years is reliable.Analysis of precipitation features indicates that there were three wet periods occurring during 1671(?)—1692,1716—1794 and 1825—1866 and three dry periods during 1693 —1715,1795—1824 and 1867—1969.Two wet periods,during 1716—1794 and 1825—1866, correspond to the times of the second and the third glacial terminal moraine formation,which is in front of No.1 glacier in Urumqi River source.According to computation,corresponding annual precipitation amounts are 59mm and 30mm more than now.The reconstructed precipitation series has a significant drying trend from 1716 to 1969.and has better representativeness to the precipitation of Urumqi and Changji Prefecture on the North Slope of Tianshan Mountains.
Correlation census shows that the correlation between the tree-ring chronologies in the Urumqi River Basin and precipitation during July in the last year to February in the concurrent year is significant,and the best single correlation coefficient is 0.74,with significance level of 0.0001. Using two residual chronologies collected from west Baiyanggou and Boerqingou,precipitation for 348 years can be reconstructed in the North Slope of middle Tianshan Mountains,its explained variance is 62%.According to much verification from independent precipitation data,historical climate records,glacier and other data.it shows that the reconstructed precipitation series of 348 years is reliable.Analysis of precipitation features indicates that there were three wet periods occurring during 1671(?)—1692,1716—1794 and 1825—1866 and three dry periods during 1693 —1715,1795—1824 and 1867—1969.Two wet periods,during 1716—1794 and 1825—1866, correspond to the times of the second and the third glacial terminal moraine formation,which is in front of No.1 glacier in Urumqi River source.According to computation,corresponding annual precipitation amounts are 59mm and 30mm more than now.The reconstructed precipitation series has a significant drying trend from 1716 to 1969.and has better representativeness to the precipitation of Urumqi and Changji Prefecture on the North Slope of Tianshan Mountains.
基金
funded by Xinjiang Science and Technology Commission(980103002)
by the National Key Project for Basic Research(G199043501)
by the foundation of the open laboratory of National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration
by the foundation of Observation and Experiment Station of Tianshan Mountain Glacier,Chinese Academy of Seienecs.
