摘要
针对水库调度风险分析一直为水库调度理论研究的重点及难点之一,借助东北电网水调自动化项目及多年水库调度运行经验,结合风险分析的基础理论,采用蒙特卡罗法研究了发电调度风险分析,选取一系列风险指标建立了发电调度风险分析模型,并开发了相应风险分析软件。通过在东北电网水库调度自动化系统的应用,证明了该模型计算结果的合理性,为发电调度风险分析提供了一种合理可行的途径,也给调度管理人员提供了决策支持。
It is important and difficult to study risk analysis of reservoir operation.According to reservoir dispatch automation project and operation experience in Northeast Grid,Monte Carlo method is used to study risk of generation dispatch with basic theory of risk analysis.Risk indexes are chosen to build risk analysis model of generation dispatch and the risk analysis software is developed.The developed software is applied to reservoir dispatch automation system in Northeast Grid,which proves the model is reaso...
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2010年第5期163-165,共3页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
风险分析
风险指标
水库调度风险分析模型
发电调度风险分析
东北电网
risk analysis
risk indexes
risk analysis model of reservoir operation
risk analysis of generation dispatch
Northeast Grid
