自贡青岩洞水温映震效能分析

Discussion on the possible response of the water temperature data changes of Qingyandong spring to the earthquakes occurred surrounding Zigong areas

2008年汶川8.0级地震后,通过自贡及邻近区一系列中小地震的检验,证明自贡青岩洞水温观测点是一个难得的敏感点。自贡青岩洞水温观测值在长宁震群、自贡威远间地震、自贡隆昌间的3至4级震例中均出现了超过年变基础之上的短临趋势异常或短临突跳异常现象,其异常幅度均超过年平均值0.5倍均方差以上,特征明显,对应率高,有利于对地震震中位置和时间的判断。地震映震敏感区主要沿华蓥山断裂带西南段至川滇交界处东侧分布。井孔具有有效监控自贡东部、南部及华蓥山断裂带中南段地区5级以上中强地震及川滇交界处东部沿线地区6.5级以上破坏性地震的监控能力,配合其他观测手段可以提高短临预测预报效能。

Since the 2008 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake,observation data changes of the water temperature of Qingyandong spring in Zigong area have been analyzed and tested.Our results analysis show that the data changes have a well response to the medium-small earthquake groups with magnitude from Ms 3.0 to Ms 4.0 in Zigong and around areas.In other words,the observation site is a sensitive position for monitoring the earthquake precursor.Before and after a medium-strong earthquake the plot from the observation data sho...