东北雨养农区气候变暖趋势与春玉米产量变化的关系分析

Correlations Between Climatic Warming Trends and Corn Yield Changes in Rain-fed Farming Areas of Northeast China

利用气象资料和长期定位试验数据,采用一阶差分和多元回归分析方法,研究玉米产量波动与气候变化的关系,从而分离玉米产量变化中的气候效应,评价气候变化对东北地区春玉米生产的影响。结果表明:东北地区春玉米区域气候变暖趋势明显,玉米主要生长季节(5～9月)平均最高气温和最低气温每10年分别上升0.6℃和0.8℃,生长季气候变化因素(最高温度、最低温度和降雨量)可以解释近30%玉米产量的变化;玉米产量变化与生长季节平均最高温度变化呈显著负相关,最高温度每上升1℃导致玉米产量降低14%;最低温度和降雨量的变化与产量变化无显著相关关系。

The objective of this study was to identify the contribution of recent climate change to observe corn yield trends and assess the impacts of climate change on corn production in Northeast China.Weather and yield data from a long-term field experiment were investigated to examine the relationships between corn yield and climate change by using an approach based on first-difference time series and multiple linear regressions.Results showed that there was a significant warming trend at the experimental station...