人力资本与经济增长的实证分析

An empirical analysis of human capital and economic growth

利用我国 1 978～ 2 0 0 1年的相关数据 ,论证了我国国内生产总值Yt、资本存量Kt、人力资本存量Ht、人均人力资本存量ht 的时间序列数据符合卢卡斯的人力资本外部性内生经济增长模型 :Yt=AtKαtH1 -αt hβt,且人力资本水平具有显著的外部性和较高的产出弹性 .在此基础上 。

Based on the Lucas model (namely the outside endogenous model of the human capital): Y t=A tK α tH 1-α th β t , the contribution of human capital to China′s economic growth was analyzed with the data of 1978～2001. It was proved that China′s gross domestic product, capital stock, human capital stock and time array datum of per human capital stock were in accordance with Lucas′ human capital outside endogenous economic growth model. The human capital level possessed externality and output elasticity (0.393). The investment of the human capital should be strengthened; especially the investment in education should be increased.