非线性智能组合预测模型及其应用

Nonlinear Agent Combination Forecast Model in Complex System and Its Application

在现有智能预测理论的基础上,将模糊集理论、神经网络理论和遗传算法相结合,建立了非线性智能组合预测模型,并应用于黄河凌汛预测中.结果表明:非线性智能组合预测模型的预测精度高于单一预测模型和线性组合预测模型.

Based on the agent prediction theory presented by professor S Y Chen, a nonlinear agent combination forecast model was set up through combining the fuzzy set theory, the neural network theory and the genetic algorithm, and this model was applied to the forecast of ice flood in the Yellow River. The predicting result shows that higher forecast accuracy can be gained using the nonlinear agent combination forecast model than using a general forecast model and a linear agent combination forecast model.