油菜发育过程及生育期机理模型的研究 Ⅱ.模型的检验和评价

A mechanistic model of phasic and phenological development in rapeⅡ. Validation and evaluation of the model

利用国内3组不同年份、不同品种、不同播期、不同施肥处理的田间试验资料,对第Ⅰ报中所描述的油菜发育过程及生育期模型进行了验证。结果表明,模型对大多数生育阶段的模拟误差为3d左右,平均差平方和的根值(rootmeansquareerror,RMSE)也为3d左右,尤其对初花期、终花期、成熟期的模拟精度高、误差小。模型表现出较强的机理性以及较好的预测性和实用性。

Three date sets from field experiments with different years, rape varieties, sowing dates and application of fertilizer in Wuhan, China, used to test the mechanistic model for development processes and phasic and phenologial stages in rape in the first paper of the research. The results showed that the absolute prediction errors for most stages of growth and development ranged with in 3d, and the root mean square errors were generally less than 3d. The model was of high accuracy and low error especially for initial anthesis, end anthesis and maturity reflecting an enhanced level of mechanism and prediction.