中国城乡商品市场协调发展实证分析及其对策

Empirical Analysis on Coordinated Development of Urban-Rural Commodity Markets in China and the Countermeasures

中国市场化水平已突破了临界水平,但是城乡商品市场发展仍然有着巨大的差距.构建了中国城乡商品协调发展的指标体系,通过因子分析计算出1978—2007年间城乡商品市场发展协调度,并通过工具变量回归分析了影响协调度的相关指标.研究结果表明:30年来中国城乡商品市场发展日趋协调,主要体现在协调动力和协调保障因子上,而协调状态因子则几经波动.GDP、城市化和工业化对于城乡商品市场协调发展有着显著的正向影响,商品流通速度对于协调度也有着积极的贡献,城乡贸易壁垒则对城乡协调发展起着一种非线性的影响,在不同发展阶段其影响不同.

The level of the Chinese market has exceeded the critical level,but there is still a great gap between the development of urban and rural commodity markets.The author built the index system of coordinated development of China's urban-rural commodity,calculated degree of commodity market development coordination in 1978—2007 by factor analysis and analyzed the impact factors through the instrumental variable regression.The results show that the coordination of China's urban-rural commodity market grow high in 30 years,but mainly in the protection factors and power factors,while the state factor will fluctuate several times.GDP,urbanization and industrialization have a significant positive effect,commodity rate also has a positive contribution,but urban and rural trade barriers play a non-linear effects which are different in different stages of development.