金融危机初期中国货币政策调整对外贸影响的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Impact of China's Monetary Policy on Foreign Trade under Global Financial Crisis

本文利用金融危机爆发以来的进口、出口总值数据及相关的货币政策工具变量数据,通过向量自回归模型的脉冲响应函数建立了进出口对货币政策冲击的反应模型,在实证分析的基础上分析货币政策工具变量的冲击导致的进口变动及出口变动特点。总结了金融危机条件下货币政策对对外贸易影响的规律,并为今后及时准确地调整我国的货币政策,实现我国对外贸易平稳较快增长提出政策建议。

Based on the data of import,export,and relevant monetary instruments since global financial crisis,the paper makes an empirical research on the reflection of foreign trade to monetary shock by establishing impulse response function.The features of the change of the foreign trade are analyzed.In the end,the suggestions for promoting the development of foreign trade under financial crisis are given.