西安特殊时段旅游流规模分形结构特征研究——以“十一”黄金周为例

Fractal structure characteristics of the tourist flow scale in special session of Xi'an:a case study of National Day

旅游流具有明显的时间变化特征,特殊时段旅游流的时空分布特征研究有助于旅游目的地进行更加有效的科学管理。以西安"十一"黄金周旅游流为研究对象,以13个旅游景区(点)2003-2009年的游客量为基础数据,使用时间序列法和Zipf维数法对旅游流的时间波动和分形结构进行了分析。结果表明:(1)"十一"黄金周游客量在一周内先增长后减少,并且游客量逐年增长,增长趋势呈指数模型,但个别年份会受突发事件的影响产生波动。(2)"十一"黄金周每日景区(点)系统等级结构具有明显的分形特征,景区(点)游客规模分布分散,游客量分布不均匀。(3)"十一"黄金周历年景区(点)系统等级结构也具有明显的分形特征,游客规模分布由双分形向单分形转变,整体上游客规模分布分散,游客量分布等级结构发育不完善。该研究结论揭示了特殊时段旅游流的分布特征,对旅游业管理与规划具有一定的科学参考价值。

Tourist flow has an obvious temporal variation,especially there appeared the tourist flow 'blowout phenomenon' after the new holiday system,and became a peak period.The fractal structure model which was used to analyze the tourist flow characteristic was very popular in current study on tourism,but the studies on tourist flow in special-term by this method were rare.So the National Day's tourist flow from 2003 to 2009 in Xi'an was studied by this method in this paper.In view of the data qualification and the selecting criteria of typical samples,this study selected 13 sightseeing spots,including: Museum of Qin Terra-cotta Warriors and Horses(5 A),Huaqing Hot Springs(5 A),Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor(4 A),Lishan forest Park(4 A),Lintong Museum(3 A),Big Wild Goose Pagoda(4 A),Forest of Stone Steles Museum(4 A),Shaanxi History Museum(4 A),Xian City Wall(4 A),Tsinling Mountains(4A)and Cuihua National Geo-park(4 A)chosen in 2003 and 2004,added Tang Paradise(4 A)and Qujiang Ocean World Park(4 A)from 2005 to 2009.Taking scenic spots' tourist number as the basic data,which are official statistics approved by Xi'an tourism bureau.At first,time fluctuation analysis on the tourist flow of seven 'National Day' golden weeks in all 49 days during 2003 and 2009 was made by Time Series method in MINITAB,then taking the selected scenic spots' daily and annual tourist number as a discrete units,measured the tourist flow's time fluctuation and fractal structure through Zipf dimension.The results indicated as follws:(1) The number increased firstly and then decreased in a week of 'National Day',and the peak period appeared during October 3 and October 5,in addition,the number has been increased year by year by an exponential growth trend model,but it was subjected to the impact of unexpected events in individual years such as SARS,the opening of new scenic spots,'5.12' Earthquake and so on;(2)During golden week,D Dimension value<1,tourists has uneven distribution,the first scenic spot has strong monopoly,moreover,the scenic spot system hierarchical structure has behaved obvious fractal character each day,the distribution of tourist flow's scale was scattered,and uneven;(3) In 2003,2005,2007,2008,2009,D<1,the distribution of tourist flow scale is Pareto.In 2004 and 2006,D>1,tourist flow is balanced.Moreover,the scenic spot system hierarchical structure also have behaved obvious fractal character every year in 'National Day',the distribution of tourist flow's size was transformed from double-fractal to single-fractal,the overall distribution of tourist flow's scale was scattered,the development of the distribution in the hierarchical structure was imperfect.The conclusions revealed the distribution characteristic of tourist flow in special-term,which will provide strong scientific references for developing the tourism in special session,and contribute to manage tourist destination scientifically in special session.