嘉陵江年径流量时间序列趋势分析

Three Gorges Area The Trend Analysis of Annual Runoff Time Series in the Jialing River

以嘉陵江流域作为研究范围,以其控制性水文站北碚站实测数据为研究依据。采用肯德尔(Kendall)秩次相关法、累积距平法、Mann-Kendall统计检验方法及相关性分析法对径流量、降水量进行分析。分析得出嘉陵江流域Ken-dall标准化变量M=-2.52,径流量呈显著下降趋势,且在1992年发生突变。累积距平法分析表明:流域有二个显著的丰水段、一个平水段、二个显著的枯水段。降水量同径流量的变化存在明显的相关性,相关系数为0.75,呈显著相关关系。降水和人类活动是嘉陵江径流量发生变化最主要的原因。

To study the hydrologic cycle,water balance,the use and management of water resources,it is often important to have a better understanding of the variations and the change trend of discharges for the system.This paper presents the statistical analysis of the discharge and precipitation data for the Jialing River at the Beibei Hydrologic Gaging Station.60 years of data have been used in this study for the Kendall correlation analysis,the cumulative mass analysis,and the Mann-Kendall statistical analysis for the change points and change trend in precipitation and flows.The Kendall correlation analysis and the Mann-Kendall statistical analysis showed that the discharges in the Jialing River had a decreasing trend with the change point in 1992.The cumulative discharge analysis showed that there were two clear high flow periods,one average flow period,and two dry periods.The Mann-Kendall analysis showed that precipitation had a significant reduction since 1993.Discharges correlate well with the precipitation within the river basin,which indicated that precipitation is the primary cause of flow reduction in the river.Other factors contributed to the reduction of flow include urbanization,dam constructions on the river,and usage of water in the upper regions.