发展低碳经济需跨越能源消费或碳排放的三大高峰

The Development of Low Carbon Economy Should Surpass the Three Peaks of Energy Consumption or Carbon Emission

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)分析,提出了下述观点:发展低碳经济是协调经济发展与保障能源安全、应对气候变化的基本途径,其基本目标是在促进经济发展的同时,减少碳排放量或者实现经济发展与碳排放的分离。但是,发展低碳经济并不是一个轻而易举的过程,从长期来看,一般需要依次跨越三大高峰,即能源消费强度或碳排放强度的倒U型曲线高峰、人均能源消费或者碳排放的倒U型曲线高峰以及能源消费总量或者碳排放总量的倒U型曲线高峰。第一个高峰相对容易跨越,而第二、三个高峰则比较困难。这同时也意味着应对气候变化不能完全脱离发展阶段,发达国家和发展中国家的温室气体减排目标和重点应有所不同。发达国家应以人均碳排放和碳排放总量减排为重点,而发展中国家则应以降低碳排放强度为目标导向。中国目前虽然已跨越能源消费或碳排放强度高峰,但尚未实现稳定下降。因此,从近中期来看,应该把提高能效和降低碳排放强度作为发展低碳经济、应对气候变化的核心,进一步加大科技创新和政策制度创新力度。

Based on the analysis of the environmental Kuznets curves ,this paper puts forword the following points of view. To develop Low Carbon Economy is a basic way to reconcile the relationship between economic growth and energy security and climate change, whose basic goals are to promote economic growth and decrease carbon emission. However, the development is a long process. It should in general surpasses three peaks, that is, the inverted-U shape peak of the energy consumption intensity or carbon emission intensity curve, the peak of the energy consumption or carbon emission per capita curve, and the peak of the total energy consumption or carbon emission curve. It is more difficult to surpass the second peak and the third peak than the first one. This means that the current development stage should be considered when dealing with climate change and the target of reduction of GHG emissions of developed countries should be different from developing countries, The stresses should be put on the reduction of carbon emission per capita and the total carbon emission in developed countries, while on reducing carbon emission intensity in developing countries. Although having surpassed the peak of energy consumption intensity or the carbon emission intensity, China’s energy consumption intensity or carbon emission intensity has not decreased steadily so far. In the short and medium term, improving the energy efficiency and decreasing the carbon emission intensity should become the core of combating climate change and developing low carbon economy, and technological, policy and institutional innovation should be further strengthened in China.