2011年我国经济景气状况与通胀成因分析

Analyses of China’s Economic Situations and Causes of Inflation in 2011

分析结果显示,我国经济景气从2010年2月开始进入新一轮短周期的收缩阶段且可能持续到2012年1季度,年内经济运行呈缓慢下降走势。预测全年GDP增长率为9.3%,物价上涨趋势于7月结束,全年CPI上涨5.5%左右。在本轮物价上涨过程中,货币因素的贡献最大,但已出现下降趋势;其次是需求与收入因素且影响不断提高;再次是国际与成本因素。年内宏观调控应以稳为主,避免因调控过度和欧债危机等不确定因素叠加引起经济增长的过快下滑。同时,须从多方面入手扭转实际消费增长的下降趋势。

The analytical results indicate that China’s economic growth has been in a decline phase since the February of 2010 and could continue until the last quarter of 2011. The GDP growth rates are tending to be stable and may be 9.5% in 2011. The inflation rate might decline after July of 2011, and the annual CPI is expected to rise by about 5.4%. In the current round of price increases, the monetary factor has contributed most, next comes the demand/income factor whose contribution has been increasing, and the third is the international/cost factor. In short run, macro-control policies should be steady mainly and pay attention to many uncertainties, such as Europe’s debt crisis, in order to avoid economic growth falling fast.