人民币汇率升值趋势、升值动因及政策建议研究

The studies of RMB exchange rate appreciation trend, appreciation reasons and policy suggestions

回顾了人民币汇率自汇率形成机制改革重启以来的人民币汇率的升值趋势及经济影响,并分析了这种升值趋势的动因。分析表明:我国经济相对美国、欧盟等经济体的强劲增长是人民币长期升值趋势的根本动因,我国与美国货币政策的背离是导致人民币汇率近期升值的原因,美债危机和欧债危机则加速了人民币汇率近期的升值趋势。

This paper reviews the appreciation trend of RMB exchange rate since the further reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism and illustrates the economic results of RMB exchange rate appreciation. Further, this paper analyzes the reasons underlying the appreciation trend of RMB exchange rate. The analyses show that the stronger growth of Chinese macro-economy comparing with the economies of US and Europe is the underlying reason of the RMB appreciation trend for a long period. And the reason of the RMB exchange rate appreciation recently is the discrepancy between Chinese monetary policy and US monetary policy. The sovereign debt crises of US and Europe increase the speed of RMB exchange rate appreciation recently.