世界风力发电现状与前景预测

Wind Power Generation Today in the World and Prospect Forecast

全球可再生能源发电装机容量中风电占有压倒性优势,今后可望成为欧洲、亚洲、北美的主要电力来源。2011年中国以62GW的累计装机容量蝉联世界第一,按照我国"十二五"规划目标,预计到2015年风电装机容量将达到1×108kW,年发电量1900×108kW.h。GWEC和Greenpeace预测,今后20年风力发电将成为世界主力电源,2030年装机容量有可能达到23×108kW,可供应世界电力需求的22%。欧美正大力开发海上风电产业。欧洲是世界海上风电发展的先驱和产业中心,欧洲企业不仅拥有自己的核心技术,而且还向世界各地输出技术,今后欧洲海上风力发电将急速增长。美国采取与英国、德国等欧洲厂家相同的战略,大力发展海上风力发电。我国海上风电产业刚刚起步,预计2015年海上风电装机500×104kW。日本学者大岛教授推算了不同电源的发电成本:包括政府财政补贴,运行年限30年的核电站发电成本为12.06日元/(kW.h);按标准设备利用率,风力发电成本11.30日元/(kW.h),与核电相比已经有竞争力。假设风况好时设备利用率达到35%,发电成本为7.95日元/(kW.h),比核电低得多。

Wind power accounts for a predominant share of the world′s installed renewable energy-based power generating capacity and is expected to become the main source of electricity in Europe,Asia and North America.In 2011,China′s installed wind power generating capacity stood at 62GW,the largest worldwide.According to the country′s Twelfth Five Year Plan,China′s installed wind power generating capacity will reach 1×108kW and annual wind power output will reach 1900×108kW·h by 2015.GWEC and Greenpeace have both predicted that wind power will be a key source of electricity for the world in the next 20 years.By 2030,the world′s installed wind power generating capacity is expected to hit 23×108kW,representing 22% of the world′s electricity demand.European and American countries are stepping up their effort to develop offshore wind power resources.Europe was the first region to develop offshore wind power resources in the world and remains the center of this industry.European enterprises not only have their own core expertise but are also exporting technology to other parts of the world.Europe′s offshore wind power industry is expected to grow rapidly over the next few years.The United States has adopted a similar strategy to European countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany in developing offshore wind power.China has just started out in developing offshore wind power and its installed offshore wind power generating capacity is expected to reach 500×104kW by 2015.According to a Japanese professor′s calculations of costs of generating electricity using different energy sources,if government subsidies are included,the cost of a nuclear power station with a 30 year life is 12.06 yen/(kW·h);and if as per the standard equipment utilization factor,the cost of a wind power plant is 11.30 yen/(kW·h).This suggests that wind power is more competitive than nuclear power.Assuming the equipment utilization factor reaches 35% when good wind conditions are available,the cost of wind power generation will be only 7.95 yen/(kW·h),much lower than that of nuclear power generation.