基于经济结构调整的能源消费模式改进研究

A Study into Improving Energy Consumption Mode Based on Economic Structure Adjustment

能源的合理利用与消费一直是能源经济学关注的重要问题之一,现有研究对于经济发展方式转变对能源消费的影响重视不足,对能源消费的预测也鲜有政策背景与目标性约束。研究的主要目的就是在我国现有研究的基础上,将政策性的目标指向与能源消费量相结合,从而为能源消费量的预测与目标规划提出新的分析角度。基于我国经济发展目标,总结出经济结构调整的各项主要指标,利用层次分析法构建出经济结构调整指数,以反映经济发展方式的转变。利用回归分析法得出结论,经济结构调整每优化1个单位,能源消费结构优化约0.3个单位,经济结构的调整对能源消费结构的变动有较明显的引导作用;能源消费结构每优化1个单位,能源消费总量减少1.8%;而能源效率每增加1个单位,能源消费总量减少约4.0%;同时能源生产和人口增加也促使能源消费总量增长。可见,经济发展方式转变推动能源消费结构优化,进而引起能源消费总量的下降。建议国家应加快转变经济发展方式,为能源消费结构的调整创造条件;加快能源产业自身结构调整步伐,更好地适应于经济发展方式转变。

A rational utilization and consumption of energy has long been one of the focuses of the energy economics.Not enough attention has been given,in current studies,to the influence of changes in the mode of economic growth on energy consumption and it is also rare that the forecast of energy consumption is placed in a policy context and with objective constraints.The main goal of this study is to combine policy objectives and energy consumption,based on the existing studies in China,to open up new dimensions for analysis of the forecast of energy consumption and objective planning.Based on China's objectives for economic growth,the article summarizes the main indicators for the adjustment to the economic structure and develops indices for the adjustment using the analytic hierarchy process in order to reflect the change in the model of economic growth.Conclusions were drawn using the regression analysis method: the energy mix could be optimized by around 0.3 unit when the economic structure improves by 1 unit,meaning that the adjustment to the economic structure plays a big role in guiding the change in the energy mix;total energy consumption drops by 1.8% when the energy mix improves by 1 unit;the total energy consumption drops by around 4.0% when the energy efficiency rises by 1 unit;and both energy production and population growth play a role in increasing the total energy consumption.Therefore,changes in the model of economic growth can give a boost to the optimization of the energy mix,in turn leading to a drop in the total energy consumption.The article suggests that China should quicken its pace of changing the mode of its economic growth to create conditions for a change in its energy mix and should also accelerate the adjustment to the structure of the energy industry to gear to the change in the mode of economic growth.