日本是否会放弃核能——日本能源政策走向分析

Will Japan Give Up Nuclear Generators?——An Analysis of the Trends in Japan's Energy Policies

能源作为日本震后经济社会发展的中长期政策大纲《日本再生基本战略》的主要支柱之一,日本能源政策的走向尤为值得关注。从短期看,日本将加大核能监管,继续扩大核电制造出口,完全弃核是不可能的;从长期看,日本会逐步降低核能在能源结构中的比例。由于核电的关停,造成日本电力供应不足,进而导致对火力发电政策的支持力度增强,未来对化石能源的依赖局面仍将持续。同时,由于核能政策的调整,一方面使得节能及提高能源使用效率成为新的支柱,另一方面可再生能源将成为重要的发展方向。近10年来,日本可再生能源占能源结构的比例一直没什么变化,约为10%,这与日本政府支持核能战略的政策导向不无关系。日本当前发展可再生能源的主要障碍是缺乏政府的长期政策扶持,其次是开发难度大、发电成本高、系统稳定性低。日本目前需要解决的课题包括全量购买制度等相关政策的导入,大幅度降低成本和解决稳定性关键技术,有效解决可再生能源利用的地域化差异等。总的来看,日本新的能源政策基本是围绕减少对核电的依赖和应对全球气候变暖来制定的。

Given the fact that energy is one of the major components of Japan's economic and social long and medium-term development plan post the Earthquake—the Strategies for Revitalizing Japan,the country's energy policy trend deserves special attention.In the short term,Japan will step up the monitoring and control of nuclear facilities and continue to expand nuclear power-related product exports.It is unimaginable that Japan will get rid of all of its nuclear power generators.In the long term,Japan will gradually scale down the share of nuclear power in its energy mix.Due to an undersupply of power resulting from the shutdown of nuclear reactors,Japan has raised its support to thermal power generation and thus will continue to rely on fossil fuels to meet its power needs.The adjustment to nuclear power policies has,on the one hand,highlighted the importance of energy saving and higher energy efficiency and,on the other hand,will provide an opportunity for the development of renewable energy.Over the past 10 years,the share of renewable energy in Japan's energy mix has stayed around 10%.This is a result of the Japanese government's support to the country's nuclear power strategy.The main obstacle faced by Japan to rapid growth of the renewable energy industry is the lack of the government's long-term policy support.Other constraints include development difficulties,high cost of producing power and low system stability.The main immediate issues for Japan to resolve include the introduction of relevant policies such as the full amount purchasing system,a significant drop in power generation cost,the development of key technologies for ensuring stability and geographical difference in the abundance of renewable energy sources.Overall,Japan's new energy policy is developed to reduce the country's reliance on nuclear power and to combat global climate change.