我国“十二五”能源消费预测及影响因素分析

A Forecast of China's Energy Consumption during Twelfth Five Year Plan Period and Analysis of Contributing Factors

首先利用GM(1,1)预测方法和2000～2010年我国一次能源消费量数据对我国"十二五"一次能源消费量进行预测。预测结果表明:"十二五"期间我国能源消费量将保持持续上涨的趋势,到2015年将达到440489.1×104t标煤,明显高于"十二五"能源消费规划目标,这将不利于我国"节能减排工作"的顺利实现。经验表明,实际能源消费量常常与规划目标存在一定差距,应引起高度关注。为此,既要做好能源消费实际值将超过目标值的各项准备,同时也要加大工作力度,努力促进能源规划目标的实现。对经济发展、人口增长、产业结构、社会投资、能源利用效率、能源工业投资等我国能源消费影响因素进行灰色关联分析,结果表明,经济发展、人口增长是导致能源消费量迅猛上涨的首要因素,同时能源利用效率低下、能源建设投资力度有待提高以及产业结构不合理等因素也是造成能源消费持续增长的重要因素。在不影响经济增长以及我国作为人口大国的基本国情在短期内无法改变的条件下,需要着手推进技术节能,提高能源科技水平;加大能源建设投资力度,促进能源行业健康发展;推进结构节能,促进产业结构优化。

The article forecasts China's primary energy consumption during the Twelfth Five Year Plan period based on the GM(1,1) method and data on China's primary energy consumption during 2000-2010.The forecast results show that China's energy consumption will keep rising during the Twelfth Five Year Plan period to reach 440489.1×104t of coal equivalent by 2015,considerably higher than the figure anticipated.This will hamper China's energy saving and emission reduction work.Experience shows that there is usually a difference between actual energy consumption and planned targets,which deserves our great attention.Therefore,China should,on the one hand,be prepared for the scenario where its actual energy consumption exceeds anticipations and on the other hand strive to achieve the planned energy objectives.The article also conducts a grey relational analysis of the effect of economic development,population growth,industrial structure,social investment and energy efficiency on China's energy consumption.The analytic results show that economic development and population growth are the primary factors leading to the surge in energy consumption.Other major influencing factors include low energy efficiency,insufficient investment in energy construction and irrational industrial structure.At the end of the article,the authors put forth some suggestions on the conditions not to influence economic growth and the fundamental realities of our country as a large population country not to be changed,including pushing technical energy saving,improving energy technology levels,strengthening investment in energy construction to promote the growth of the energy industry in a healthy manner,and pushing energy saving through the optimization of industrial structures.