人民币汇率变动对中美贸易结构收支的影响——基于SITC分类标准的实证分析

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on Sino-U.S. Trade Structure:An Empirical Analysis based on the SITC Classification Standards

人民币汇率变动能否解决中美双边贸易失衡问题一直是国内外学者研究与争论的焦点。实证分析表明,人民币汇率的水平变动无法起到调节中美两国贸易收支的作用,但适度增加汇率波动弹性有助于缓解贸易失衡。因此,只有消除对人民币升值的预期、进行经济结构调整以及改善外商直接投资的流向,才能从根本上恢复中美之间的贸易平衡。

Whether the Sino-U.S.trade imbalance can be resolved by RMB exchange rate changes is under heated debate for a long time.According to the conclusion of empirical analysis,the changes of real effective exchange rate can hardly alleviate current trade imbalance between the two countries,but moderate increase in exchange rate flexibility will help.Therefore,only by eliminating the anticipation of RMB's appreciation,adjusting domestic economic structure,and making use of foreign investments rationally,can Sino-U.S.trade be rebalanced.