中美货物贸易互补性的实证研究

Empirical Analysis on the Trade Complementarity of Sino-U.S. Goods Trade

1979～2010年中美贸易规模呈现百倍以上的增长,其原因在于长期以来中美贸易互补性不断增强。通过对贸易结合度指数、显示性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数的分析研究,均显示出中美双边贸易关系是紧密的,双边贸易的互补性是显著和稳定的,这充分说明中美所处的国际分工的地位及两国产业结构调整的变化使双边贸易往来处于有利的局面,但也应看到双边的贸易摩擦纠纷一直不断,这不利因素短期内难以解决,因而成为阻碍中美贸易发展的障碍。

Because the complementarity of Sino-U.S.trade is growing for a long time,the size of Sino-U.S.trade has grown more than a hundred times from 1979 to 2010.The analysis of the Trade Intensity Index,the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index,and the Trade Complementarity Index all shows that there is a close trade tie between China and the United States,and there is also a significant and stable complementary relationship between the two.It fully shows that the position of the two countries in the international division of labor and the change of industrial structure of two countries are good for Sino-U.S.trade.But there are trade frictions between two countries continuously,which are difficult to be resolved in short term and will be the obstacles of the development of Sino-U.S.trade.