基于改进MD模型的区域交通方式划分预测方法

Regional Traffic Modal Splitting Method Based on Improved MD Model

分析了MD模型的基本原理;综合考虑出行时间、费用、安全、方便和舒适等5个因素对出行方式选择的影响,完善了出行牺牲量的量化方法,加入了安全性、舒适性、方便性的量化指标及其量化方法;建立了基于改进的MD模型的区域交通方式分担率预测方法,并提出了预测流程及预测模型中关键变量的求解算法;以沪宁通道内客运方式分担率的预测为实例,对比分析了改进前后MD模型及Logit模型的预测结果。验证了改进后MD模型能较好地模拟区域交通方式选择过程,预测有效可行。

With analysis of the basic principles of the MD model and consideration of factors like travel time,cost,safety,convenience,comfort on travel mode choice,this paper improved quantitative method of travel to sacrifice and joined the security,comfort and convenience of quantitative indicators to quantitative methods.Then MD regional traffic mode split model based on improved forecasting methods was established,and a prediction model in the forecasting process and key variables algorithm was given.Thereafter the validity and practicability of the proposed method was demonstrated by the examples of traffic mode split of Shanghai-Nanjing corridor.