中国货币政策区域效应研究

A Study on the Regional Effects of Monetary Policy in China

在全国范围内实施统一的货币政策,不仅对经济的总量波动产生影响,同时在异质性区域间产生差别的作用效果。基于新古典投资理论,运用面板数据模型和向量自回归模型,分别对货币政策作用于区域投资的长期效果和短期效果进行实证检验,实证检验结果表明各区域投资对货币政策冲击的长期敏感程度和短期中不同时点的反应程度均存在显著的差异。研究结果为统一的货币政策框架下实施区域差别化的策略提供了经验支持,也为运用货币政策解决区域经济非均衡发展问题提供了理论和实证基础。

The nationwide implementation of a unified monetary policy not only affects the aggregate economic fluctuations,but also has different impacts on heterogeneous regions.Based on the neo-classical investment theory,a panel data model and a vector autoregressive model are established to study the effects of monetary policy on regional investments.The results of this empirical research indicate that the sensitivity and responsiveness of regional investments to monetary policy impacts are significantly different both in the long-term and at different time points in the short-term.Such results provide an empirical support for the implementation of regionally differentiated strategies under the framework of a unified monetary policy.Furthermore,they also provide a theoretical and empirical basis for applying the monetary policy to solve the non-balanced development problems in different regions.